Today
NEWS, ARTICLES & VIDEO
Retail
"Tmall’s Janet Wang on Luxury Prospects in China"...WWD article here
"LVMH CEO Arnault’s Fortune Soars Past $200Billion for First Time"...Bloomberg video here
"Hermès and Louis Vuitton Boost China Expansion Plans"...Article here
"Latin America's Luxury Sales Drop After Two-year Boom"...WWD Article here
"Interview: Kick Game – from sneaker reseller to luxury retailer"...Article here
Beauty, Jewelry, Watches, Accessories & Eyewear
"With new C-suite and beauty brand launches, Maesa plots 2023 growth"...Article here
"Luxury halal Swiss brand targets clean beauty market in South East Asia"...Article here
IPO's & Deals
"Russia approves sale of Spanish company Inditex's business to Daher group"...Article here
"Fanatics Expands International Footprint With Acquisition of Italian Sports Retailer EPI"...WWD article here
"UK Budget retailer TOFS' owner hunts for buyer"...Article here
Markets, Economy, Business, Consumer & Culture
"Nasdaq falls 1% for three-day losing streak after weak economic data"...CNBC article here
"US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Falls to Seven-Week Low of 6.4%"...Bloomberg article here
"Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says"...CNBC article here
"U.S. economy forecast to create 238,000 jobs in March. The Fed wouldn't be happy"...Dow Jones article here
"US-China Split Could Hinder Foreign Investment and Lower Global GDP, IMF Warns"...Bloomberg article here
"Walmart Sales fcsts affirmed for FY, Q1; 65% of stores to be automation serviced by 2026"...Reuters article here
"Walmart hinting that a recent investment binge might lift profit beyond stated long-term goals"...Bloomberg here
"Inflation Is Helping Drive a Boom in Secondhand Shopping"...Bloomberg article here
"Zara and Wallpaper launch offbeat travel guides; ‘Where To Now’"...Article here
INDUSTRY REPORTS
Citi: Retail – Credit Card Data – Our CC data for the 16 sub-sectors we track show that total spending in March wk 5 (ended 4/1/23) decreased 8.9%, an acceleration vs March wk 4 (-10.9%)
Citi: Retail – Credit Card Data – Overall March was down 8.9% and was the weakest month since April 2020 - Ex-Food spending -11.1% vs -13.7% in Mar wk 4, and Mar (ex-food) was -11.2% vs Feb down 7.6%
Citi: Retail – Credit Card Data – Strongest sub-sectors: We note that cosmetics has been dethroned as the best performing subsector and was down 3.1% compared to +30% just a couple months ago
Citi: Retail – Credit Card Data – Strongest sub-sectors: In March week 5, we saw strongest absolute results in: Pet Shops (+5.3%)
Citi: Retail – Credit Card Data – Weakest sub-sectors: We saw the largest declines in Ecom Pure Play Apparel (-29.2%), Appliances (-25.7%), Home Furnishings (-19.5%), Electronics (-15.2%), Dept Stores (-14.6%), Home Improvement (-12.9%)
Citi: Retail – Credit Card Data – Weakest sub-sectors: Aftermarket Auto/Parts (-12.1%), Sporting Goods (-6.9%), Mass/Dollar/Off-price (-6.0%), Apparel (-5.4%), Food Retail (-4.6%), Cosmetics (-3.1%), and Footwear (-3.0)
TD Cowen: Retail – Traffic - March Week 5 traffic accel’d to close out the month to +8.6% y/y, but remained low (March avg +6.8%) and decel’d from February. U.S. Apparel traffic also accel’d to a three-week high of +9.3% y/y
UBS: Retail – Inventory - Our inventory analysis suggests Softline industry inventory levels are high and we see risk a new inventory problem emerges in 2H23 – St’s 1Q GM est’s look reasonable for now
UBS: Retail – Inventory - Inventory situation is getting less bad, but we don’t see that as a positive for stocks. We are bearish on the 2H23 industry sales outlook and this makes us believe a new inventory problem will emerge in 2H23
BofA: Retail - Tax Refund Tracker: Per the US Treasury, cumulative refund dollars is down 10 % YoY as of the end of Week # 10 (ending Mar 31)
Deutsche Bank: Retail – Promos - Promotional levels this March were above those we observed last year and worsened slightly from January and February on a YOY basis –
Deutsche Bank: Retail – Promos - Out of the 29 retailers we track, 45% of retailers were more promotional YOY, compared to 34% in February, 41% in January, 59% in December, and the prior 12-month average of 36%.
JP Morgan: Luxury – Q1 23 Prev – All eyes in this reporting will be on China and the actual magnitude of the recovery within reopening; our best estimate for China growth in Q1 is mid-teens growth for the sector, albeit with polarization by brand
JP Morgan: Luxury – Q1 23 Prev – Outside of China, our Q1 Brand Heatmap suggests that the luxury sector should have seen broadly similar interest as in Q4. On our data, hard luxury continued to show solid traction, soft luxury is showing mixed trends
JP Morgan: Luxury – Q1 23 Prev – Our data would suggest that Gucci remains under pressure while Saint Laurent slowed further - We place Kering on Negative Catalyst Watch into Q1 23 sales reporting.